The Bureau of Meteorology has released its 2024 Spring Long-Range Forecast.
The long-range forecast provides guidance on the likelihood that different parts of the country will see conditions that are warmer or cooler, or wetter and drier than average over the next three months.
The Spring Long-Range Forecast shows an increased likelihood of warmer than average temperatures across all states and territories this spring.
Rainfall forecasts are more mixed, with an increased likelihood of above average for large parts of eastern Australia, and more likely below average rainfall for large parts of Western Australia.
The Long-Range Forecast is updated weekly with the forecast accuracy steadily improving as the start of the next month approaches.
It is worth noting that spring is typically a time when southern Australia experiences large swings in weather associated with passage of cold fronts across the south, as well as more thunderstorm activity as the weather warms. Stay up to date with the seven-day forecast for your area at www.bom.gov.au
Victoria has an increased chance of warmer than usual spring temperatures.
Most of Victoria is likely to have rainfall within the typical range for spring. This follows several very dry months in the west of the state.
There’s a slightly increased chance of above average spring rainfall for a part of the state’s south-west.
Despite some typically cool winter temperatures at times on the east coast, winter has been warmer than usual across the country with August on track to be Australia’s warmest August on record.
While winter rainfall has been close to average for many areas, parts of Australia’s south-east have been drier than usual.
Overall, Australia’s mean temperature will be around 1.5 °C above the 1961–1990 winter average.
The national summary for winter and August will be on the Bureau’s website from 2 September: News reports and summaries (bom.gov.au)
Detailed summaries for winter and August conditions for each state and capital city will be published on 4 September.
