WE HAVE lived through the most fortunate period of civilisation that has ever been, and possibly ever will.
Cheap abundant energy from fossil fuels, especially over the past 30 years, has allowed us unprecedented mobility, access to resources, prosperity, leisure time and relative global peace.
In this same period our extraction of natural resources, well above sustainable limits, has given us unparalleled wealth, materials and food, particularly in developed countries such as Australia.
With the earth having already warmed by 0.7oC from pre-industrial times, most of us accept the scientific consensus that climate change is already underway.
Once we reach 2oC of warming, some of Australia’s best known natural wonders like the Great Barrier Reef and Kakadu will be lost and we will see the collapse of globally important environments such as the Amazon rainforest and the Arctic.
Just as the threat from climate change is building, many of the world’s natural systems are already under immense stress.
Soil degradation is reducing crop yields, increasing desertification currently threatens a third of all land on earth, deforestation continues and the over fishing of 75 per cent of the world’s fisheries has already seen many collapse.
With a growing population, the demand for scarce natural resources, including water, continues to grow.
The degradation of natural resources and loss of productive land through sea level rises is likely to destabilise many fragile nations, leading to increasing conflict, deaths and refugees. As much as we enjoy our current standard of living, things are going to change.
We have some decisions to make about how seriously we address this issue.
Recent recommendations for Australia’s greenhouse targets from Ross Garnaut aim at a 3oC rise, where collapse of the earth’s support systems is guaranteed.
This target is not scientifically based but what Garnaut feels is politically achievable.
Common arguments against action include that Australia “only produces 1.6 per cent of the world’s CO2”, that we “shouldn’t do anything unless China does” and Australia “shouldn’t go it alone” or “lead the rest of the world”.
Unfortunately, Australia’s complete inaction over the Howard years including its refusal to join 97 per cent of the world’s countries that had signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol means we are well behind most other developed nations.
True, China produces a fifth of global emissions but it also has a fifth of the world’s population. They are currently using their share.
In Australia, we use seven times more than our share.
Putting land use changes aside, Australia’s emissions have risen 31 per cent between 1990 and 2006, well above our Kyoto target and, more importantly, well above what the science tells us we need to achieve which is a reduction of 80-90 per cent.
There is also the temptation to think if targets are not met, or if other countries are increasing emissions it is not worth making the effort.
All carbon emissions will worsen the situation, so like water savings, every little bit helps.
The scale of change that is needed is massive and we all need to be involved.
Unfortunately, the world cannot continue living well beyond the sustainable limits of the planet as we have been and we, in the highest consuming countries, need to reduce our consumption the most.
We now have a very limited window of opportunity to use the resources we currently use in a way that prepares us for the future.
For our governments, that means less road building, more public transport and cycling infrastructure, increased renewable energy production and not wasting precious energy on desalinating water.
On a personal front, it means less of many consumption goods.
However, if we see it as an opportunity, it can also mean better community feel, people buying local produce and making our communities less about cars and more about people. And that might not be a bad thing.